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Ohio remains crucial to White House Victory

by Policy in Practice on September 20, 2011

History shows that all roads to the White House lead through Ohio. By now, those roads have become the equivalent of a 4 lane highway as candidates and their campaigns spend more and more time in this battleground state.  As politicians and political junkies gear up for the 2012 election and with poll numbers in a constant state of flux, Ohioans can expect even more traffic.  In a Dayton Daily News article over the weekend, David Leland’s experience explains why:

David Leland still remembers his first visit to the White House as chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party in the summer of 1995 and the pledge Leland made to then President Bill Clinton.”I guaranteed Ohio’s 21 electoral votes,” Leland recalled last week.

It was brash at a time when Clinton’s approval rating nationally was below 50 percent, according to the Gallup Poll.

In Ohio, Clinton’s approval rating in June stood at 50 percent, according to an Ohio Poll, sponsored by the University of Cincinnati.

That prompted this question to Leland from a reporter after the Oval Office meeting: “Were you drinking at the time?”

Leland, now a lawyer in private practice here, likes to tell the story because it illustrates that in politics nobody can tell the future.Leland made good on his promise as Clinton recovered nicely and won a second term.

A spate of recent articles have highlighted trips to Ohio by President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, including the President’s recent trip to Cincinnati and potential trips to the Mahoning Valley.

While Republican Presidential contenders have been spending the majority of their time in state with early primaries, it won’t be too long before the visits are bi-partisan.  With great uncertainty around the race, Ohioans should prepare to once again to be in the spotlight and plan for Presidential traffic jams.

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In the September 15th edition, Rolling Stone blasts right leaning groups and organizations for throwing up barriers to voting in many states. The story reports that under the guise of working to prevent voter fraud these organizations are actually attempting to limit the 2012 turnout. Using a variety of tools, including barriers to registration, requiring photo IDs, and cuts to early voting, these groups aim to decrease the turnout of groups who traditionally vote Democratic.

An excerpt:

All told, a dozen states have approved new obstacles to voting. Kansas and Alabama now require would-be voters to provide proof of citizenship before registering. Florida and Texas made it harder for groups like the League of Women Voters to register new voters. Maine repealed Election Day voter registration, which had been on the books since 1973. Five states – Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Tennessee and West Virginia – cut short their early voting periods. Florida and Iowa barred all ex-felons from the polls, disenfranchising thousands of previously eligible voters. And six states controlled by Republican governors and legislatures – Alabama, Kansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin – will require voters to produce a government-issued ID before casting ballots. More than 10 percent of U.S. citizens lack such identification, and the numbers are even higher among constituencies that traditionally lean Democratic – including 18 percent of young voters and 25 percent of African-Americans.

Taken together, such measures could significantly dampen the Democratic turnout next year – perhaps enough to shift the outcome in favor of the GOP. “One of the most pervasive political movements going on outside Washington today is the disciplined, passionate, determined effort of Republican governors and legislators to keep most of you from voting next time,” Bill Clinton told a group of student activists in July. “Why is all of this going on? This is not rocket science. They are trying to make the 2012 electorate look more like the 2010 electorate than the 2008 electorate” – a reference to the dominance of the Tea Party last year, compared to the millions of students and minorities who turned out for Obama. “There has never been in my lifetime, since we got rid of the poll tax and all the Jim Crow burdens on voting, the determined effort to limit the franchise that we see today.”

Find the rest of the story here.

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Politico Ranks the Top Ten Gubernatorial Races of 2011-2012

by Policy in Practice on August 30, 2011

David Catanese breaks down the August rankings for most competitive gubernatorial races. Note that our neighbor to the west, Indiana, makes the list at number 8.

1. Washington

Despite a flap over how much money he could rollover from his federal account, Rep. Jay Inslee took an early fundraising edge over Attorney General Rob McKenna.

With the help of a late transfer from the state party, the Democratic congressman ended up with about a $300,000 advantage over his Republican foe.

There’s still that $1 million federal transfer to sort out. Originally, Inslee thought he could move it into his gubernatorial kettle in one full swoop but state election officials reconsidered, ordering that each contribution be disclosed and adhere to state limits.

Nonetheless, whatever federal money that makes the cut will just be icing on the cake for Inslee.

Who Won August: Inslee

No recent public polling

2. Montana

There’s not much moving in the Treasure State. Former Rep. Rick Hill continues to lead the GOP pack with wealthy national security expert Neil Livingstone potentially posing the biggest threat due to his personal finances.

Attorney General Steve Bullock isn’t in the race, but is doing all the work behind the scenes to enter the contest within weeks. An adviser tells POLITICO Bullock will make his intentions clear about running for governor shortly after Labor Day.

Who Won August: Hill

No recent public polling

3. North Carolina

It’s too soon to completely render a verdict on Gov. Bev Perdue’s stewardship of the aftermath of Hurricane Irene, but it appears she avoided every pol’s worst nightmare: Getting Katrina-ed.

Perdue was largely visible on television as the storm approached the Outer Banks and maintained a robust schedule as the recovery ensued.

The Wall Street Journal dubbed it “scripted success.”

But even if she gets a bump out of Irene, most political observers expect it to be fleeting. She’s still a governor with an approval rating in the 30s in a state that just saw its unemployment rate climb to 10 percent for the first time in 10 months.

Who Won August: Perdue

No recent public polling

4. West Virginia (Up 1 Spot)

Democrats discharged internal polling showing Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin holding a 14-point lead over drilling executive Bill Maloney about a month before the October special.

Maloney has shown the ability to close before and he’s outspent the Democrat on the air in August, but even some Republicans who have observed him on the trail acknowledge he has a messaging problem.

It’s not that he doesn’t have a compelling story to tell, but rather fails to stay on point, often gravitating between different topics, eschewing the discipline necessary to gain traction.

“He is not articulate,” said one longtime observer of West Virginian politics who calls Maloney “an honorable man.” “I think he realizes the script ain’t working and just starts winging it on topics which actually interest him enough for him to speak in complete sentences.”

Who Won August: Tomblin

No recent public polling

5. Missouri (Down 1 Spot)

There isn’t a candidate in a single race who has had a worse month in this cycle than Peter Kinder did during August.

He’s not even a declared yet and might never be now, which explains why Missouri slides below West Virginia.

The revelations surrounding the GOP lieutenant governor’s trip to a pantless bar and encounters with a Penthouse Pet might have dealt a death blow to his dream of even running for governor. Donors are rattled, GOP lawmakers are shaking their heads and Democrats are yucking it up.

But they don’t want to laugh too hard. Ironically, the fear now among Democrats is that Kinder’s slow-motion implosion will extract him from the race before it even begins.

And make no mistake, Democrats want to run against Kinder as much as Republicans want to wash their hands of him.

But this message to supporters Monday is the latest indication he’s not going quietly.

Who Won August: Gov. Jay Nixon

No recent public polling

6. Kentucky

Following the loss of his campaign manager and rumblings of a more extensive shake-up coming, the Kentucky press corps is beginning to write GOP Senate President David Williams off.
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The Louisville Courier-Journal wrote Sunday that “there’s no reason to believe that Williams has closed the gap on Gov. Steve Beshear.”

SurveyUSA pegged that gap at 24 percent at the start of the month. Public Policy Polling tweeted Monday afternoon that the new deficit is 26 points.

Facing an equally daunting financial disadvantage, Williams’ campaign chairman recently was also caught on the record saying “we’ve got to hope and pray” the resources will be there in the homestretch.

Who Won August: Beshear

Latest Poll: Beshear 52% Williams 28% (SurveyUSA 7/22-7/27 512 likely voters)

7. Indiana

John Gregg has united the party and landed Barack Obama’s 2008 Ohio political director to manage his campaign.

Rep. Mike Pence, who first said he wouldn’t dive into the substance of issues until next year, earned a good round of press for his proposal to cut four state taxes.

Despite even Gov. Mitch Daniels questioning its feasibility, Gregg even had a hard time criticizing it, comparing it to ice cream.

Who Won August: Pence

No recent public polling

8. New Hampshire

Ovide Lamontagne is sending strong signals he’ll get into the race for governor shortly after Labor Day.

But after losing a 2010 Senate race and a 1996 gubernatorial contest, will Granite State Republicans be pining for new blood?

Gov. John Lynch hasn’t said whether he’ll seek another term, but Democrats are already beginning to operate under the worst case scenario that he won’t.

Who Won August: Lamontagne

No recent public polling

9. North Dakota

Speaking of chief of executives who have been able to burnish their image during a natural disaster, there’s Republican Jack Dalrymple.

Dalrymple spent most of his summer dealing with brutal flooding, which earned the freshman considerable ink and portrayed him as a gritty leader.

He hasn’t declared, but has indicated there’s nothing stopping him from seeking a full term of his own.

On the Democratic side, State Sen. Ryan Taylor is weighing a bid, as is former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, who continues to linger over yet another statewide contest.

One reason to bet she won’t: Democrats likely won’t be competitive in the Senate race, making it less enticing to run on a weak ballot line.

A second: North Dakota’s economy, which was just featured on CNBC, is one of the best in the nation.

Who Won August: Dalrymple

No recent public polling

10. Mississippi

Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree made history this month becoming the first black candidate in modern times to clinch a major party’s nomination for Mississippi governor.

The 57-year-old DuPree now faces GOP Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant in the general. But it’s difficult to see how he’s able to capture enough white votes to win the big prize, even inside the Democratic Delta.

Bryant walks into the fall with a large lead and considerable name identification.

Who Won August: DuPree

No recent public polling

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Leland quoted in Dispatch Op-Ed on Portman, Story on Romney

by Policy in Practice on August 23, 2011

Jack Torry of the Columbus Dispatch wrote over the weekend about the potential risks and rewards for Senator Rob Portman in serving on the congressional debt-ceiling commission. He spoke with David Leland about why Portman might want to be on the panel,

Why he took such a risk is something of a puzzle. Sure, it is a high-profile post. Yes, it will elevate his name recognition beyond Ohio. As former Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David Leland said, “In politics, as in life, you don’t make a reputation by playing it safe. Nobody remembers anyone who played it safe.”

In another article on which Republican candidate running for President would play best in Ohio, Leland assessed the front runners,

But while Romney might have difficulty winning the backing of the state’s most-conservative voters, both Democratic and Republican leaders contend that in the general election, with a larger voter turnout, he would be much more formidable. “Romney is not somebody I would vote for, but he is a reasonable alternative,” said David Leland, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. “The other two are just out there in Never-Never Land.”

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Governor Kasich Proclaims August 7-13 Health Centers Week

by Policy in Practice on August 8, 2011

Governor Kasich has issued a proclamation declaring that August 7-13 is Health Centers Week in Ohio.  This coincides with National Health Center Week, which occurs the second week of August each year.  With a theme this year of “Celebrating America’s Health Centers: Serving Locally, Leading Nationally”, the theme highlights the more than 45 year record of Health Centers in providing affordable, high quality, cost-effective health care to all people, regardless of ability to pay.

Health Centers serve more than 20 million people nationwide.  For more information on National Health Center Week, including events celebrating the week in Ohio click here, and for more information on health centers in Ohio, visit the Ohio Assocation of Community Health Centers.

See Governor Kasich’s Health Center Week proclamation

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SCOTUS strikes down another campaign finance law

by Policy in Practice on June 28, 2011

In its first campaign finance decision since Citizens United, the Supreme Court struck down an Arizona campaign finance law, 5-4, holding that the law violated the First Amendment.

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Mandel gets endorsement from Sen DeMint

by Policy in Practice on June 28, 2011

The Dispatch reports:

Sen. Jim DeMint, one of the most conservative members of the U.S. Senate, yesterday endorsed state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who wants to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2012.

In an email to supporters, DeMint said his organization – the Senate Conservatives Fund – hopes to raise $100,000 by the end of the week for Mandel. DeMint, a South Carolina Republican, urged his backers to contribute so Mandel can defeat Brown, an Ohio Democrat whom DeMint called “the most liberal politician in the Senate.”

DeMint wrote that, if Mandel wins the Republican primary against state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, the November 2012 race “will pit a young conservative leader with the principles and determination to restore America’s greatness against a liberal career politician who is responsible for near double-digit unemployment and over $14 trillion in debt.”

Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the Ohio Democratic Party, responded, “Mandel has proven there’s only one job in Ohio that he cares about – his own. That’s why he’s been ignoring his duties in the treasurer’s office despite having been sworn in just a few months ago … Why does Jim DeMint know more about Mandel’s positions than Ohioans?”

Leland quoted in Dispatch op-ed comparing Sen. Brown, Obama

by Policy in Practice on June 27, 2011

Jack Torry of the Columbus Dispatch analyzes the parallels that Republicans will try to draw between Sen. Sherrod Brown and President Barack Obama, and concludes that in fact, there are many differences between them. He spoke with David Leland to glean some insight:

As next year’s election looms closer, the split is growing between President Barack Obama and Sen. Sherrod Brown. Outside of being from the same political party, they don’t seem to have much in common any longer.

Exhibit A is international trade. The White House wants Congress to approve free-trade pacts with South Korea, Colombia and Panama, while the Ohio Democrat, who has made a living out of denouncing “job-killing trade agreements,” is a firm opponent.

Exhibit B is federal spending. Just last week, Brown made clear he wants more money for local firefighters than House Republicans and Obama want to spend. In case anyone missed the point, Brown told reporters on a conference call, “I disagree with the president on this, as I disagreed with the president’s trade announcements recently.”

Exhibit C is Afghanistan. Within moments of Obama’s announcement Wednesday that he would withdraw 10,000 U.S. soldiers from Afghanistan by the end of the year, Brown issued a statement saying too little and not fast enough.

“We need a more significant and swift reduction of U.S. military forces in Afghanistan than President Obama suggested,” Brown said. Note the word suggested. Commanders in chief usually don’t suggest military decisions.

And Exhibit D was NASA’s decision to not donate one of its retired space shuttles to the National Museum of the Air Force at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base near Dayton. Brown pleaded with the White House to intervene and privately was livid with Obama’s aides when they let NASA make the call.

So what is going on here? There are really only two possibilities. One is that Brown wants to distance himself from a president who next year may have difficulty carrying Ohio. The other is that Brown is emulating the style of former Democratic Sen. Howard Metzenbaum, who liked to stay on the left and declare his independence from the national party.

“Senator Brown is a very independent thinker,” said David Leland, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party. “That’s one of the reasons he is so popular in the state of Ohio. He’s his own person. He’s not your mealy-mouthed politician. He believes in very strong ideals, and he’s not afraid to talk about them.”

“Democrats are not all carbon copies of themselves,” Leland said. “Nobody is going to agree with everybody 100 percent of the time.”

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Leland contributing to Politico.com

by Policy in Practice on June 13, 2011

David Leland has begun contributing to Politico.com.

You can track his articles here.

His latest contribution was an assessment of the new DNC Chair, Debbie Wasserstrom Schultz:

I think she is a definite plus for the party. As a former member of the DNC Executive Committee, I know firsthand what her job is: to fire up the base of the party and to create the infrastructure needed to support our candidates. She is an able, articulate spokesperson for the party, and understands what needs to be done to win!

Portman featured in Bloomberg News

by Policy in Practice on May 27, 2011

Ohio’s junior senator is being sought by the GOP’s presidential hopefuls because of Portman’s economic counsel.

“Every time we talk about deficit and debt, we have to be sure we’re letting people know that this does impact the economy today and the aspirations for future generations, and I think that’s critical to solving the budget crisis. In other words, we’ve got to grow the economy to solve this, in addition to the budget restraints,” Portman said in an interview at the Capitol. “If we don’t talk about it in those terms, I believe we will end up losing the debate.”

He has also staked out a central — if informal — role in negotiations between Republicans and Democrats to rein in the nation’s $14 trillion-plus debt, pressing for a compromise that could pair entitlement cuts and tax increases when most in his party publicly refuse to consider any tax boost.

Portman said earlier this month that while Republicans “have our own preferences, we need to keep everything on the table,” a message he has reprised in closed-door meetings with his colleagues, according to aides familiar with the sessions.