With today’s news that the unemployment rate dipped from 10 to 9.7% and the pace of job losses continuing to slow, many lamented that the recovery has been slower than the Administration had promised it would be after the installation of a massive stimulus bill nearly a year ago.
And yet, more positive signs that a more conspicuous recovery is on the way are being identified from economists, and the key appears to be manufacturing:
> Manufacturing added 11,000 jobs in January, the first positive growth in that sector since 2007.
> Temporary workers increased by 52,000
Indeed, global manufacturing is enjoying a rebirth, with increases in output and new orders.
The sharpness of the rebound, reflected in the indexes created by the Institute for Supply Management in the United States, and recreated in many other countries by Markit, could indicate that the American economy is not in line for another slow recovery, as happened after the two most recent downturns, in the early 1990s and the early 2000s.
That strength was also reflected in the gross national product estimate for the final quarter of 2009, with an annual rate of growth of 5.7 percent, the fastest for any quarter in more than six years.
“Surprisingly, given the predominant sentiment the United States is in a sub-par recovery, the current recovery in real G.D.P. has been right in line with the strong recoveries which took place in the past,” said Jim Paulsen, the chief investment strategist of Wells Capital Management, an investment arm of Wells Fargo, pointing to the recoveries in the early 1980s and the mid-1970s.
